Ella Langley, Ken Carson and Geese really ought to thank the Recording Academy for making an unexpected rule change this year. The academy had long had a rule that an artist could be entered no more than three times in the best new artist category, which would have knocked out all three of these acts, among others. But in June, the academy announced that it is upping the cap to four.
We first previewed the Grammy nominations in the marquee categories back in July. This week, we’ve been updating those predictions, as needed. On Monday, we looked at album of the year, probably the most prestigious and coveted of the 100 Grammy categories. On Tuesday, we took on record and song of the year. Today, we’re looking at best new artist.
The field of likely best new artist contenders has changed considerably since July. Dominic Fike and Megan Moroney, who I had pegged as likely nominees, are not on the list of eligible contenders. Fike had been nominated for album of the year in 2022 as a featured artist on the deluxe edition of Justin Bieber’s Justice. Moroney won new female artist of the year at the Academy of Country Music Awards in May 2024 and new artist of the year at the Country Music Association Awards that November.
Yet the Grammys’ screening committee voted to allow Rod Wave, who has had eight consecutive top 10 albums on the Billboard 200, dating back to November 2019, and Don Toliver, who has had five consecutive top 10 albums, dating back to March 2020.
The key issue, according to the academy, is determining what year the artist first had a “significant cultural and community impact.”
Here’s the relevant rule, taken from the Rules & Guidelines handbook for the 69th Grammy Awards: “This category recognizes the excellence of an artist whose eligibility-period release(s) have had significant cultural and community impact upon the industry and the musical landscape. While there will be no specified maximum number of previous releases, the Screening Committees will be charged with determining whether the artist had attained this high degree of impact in the music industry prior to the eligibility year. Such a determination would result in disqualification.”
A total of 331 artists are competing for eight slots in the best new artist category on the final ballot. Here are our best guesses for who will be nominated — listed in alphabetical order, followed by a shortlist of other possibilities, also listed in alphabetical order.
The eligibility period for the 69th annual Grammy Awards ran from Aug. 31, 2025, through Aug. 28, 2026.
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Sam Fender
Fender, 32, had his first Hot 100 hit this year with “Rein Me In,” a collab with Olivia Dean, who won in this category last year. Fender has yet to crack the Billboard 200, but “Rein” finally put him on the map in the States, spending 30 weeks on the chart and peaking at No. 45. The Englishman is the recipient of five Brit Awards, two Ivor Novello Awards and a Mercury Prize. At this year’s Brits on Feb. 28, he won song of the year for “Rein Me In” and alternative/rock act.
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Geese
The four-member rock band fronted by 24-year-old Cameron Winter formed in Brooklyn in 2016. The group’s fourth studio album, Getting Killed, became its first to make the Billboard 200. (It peaked at No. 96.) The band has become a major player on the festival circuit, playing Coachella, Bonnaroo, Lollapalooza, Governors Ball and Outside Lands. The act also made its first appearances on Jimmy Kimmel Live! and Saturday Night Live. Geese won international group of the year at the Brits in February. Here, Geese is vying to become the first rock band to win best new artist since fun. in 2013. Both of these acts hail from New York City.
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Ella Langley
Langley, 27, won new female artist of the year at the ACM Awards in May 2025 and was nominated for new artist of the year at the CMA Awards in November 2025 and new artist of the year at the 2026 American Music Awards. Dandelion, her second studio album, spent three weeks atop the Billboard 200 and has so far logged 21 weeks at No. 1 on Top Country Albums. Langley is vying to become the first country artist to win in this category since Zac Brown Band in 2010; the first female country artist to do so since Carrie Underwood in 2006. She is also vying to become the first artist born in Alabama to win.
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Stella Lefty
The question here is whether Lefty will be seen as the promising artist whose broadly appealing “Boston” climbed all the way to No. 2 on the Hot 100, or as the artist whose breakthrough moment was tarnished by accusations of plagiarism. (The nickname “Stella Thefty” was not helpful in that regard.) Lefty, 24, reached No. 11 on the Billboard 200 with her debut album, Long Way Home. Lefty was born in Los Angeles, also the birthplace of 2020 winner Billie Eilish (and others before her).
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Role Model
Role Model’s 2025 viral hit, “Sally, When the Wine Runs Out,” spilled into this eligibility year. The artist born Tucker Pillsbury, 29, performed the song on Saturday Night Live as musical guest in October 2025, joined by a surprise appearance from Charli xcx. His sophomore album, Chuck Timely & The Hourglass, reached No. 10 on the Billboard 200. Role Model, who was born in Maine, is vying to become the first New Englander to win in this category since Meghan Trainor in 2015.
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Sienna Spiro
In addition to her breakthrough hit, “Die on This Hill” (which reached No. 19 on the Hot 100), Spiro gained added exposure when her song “Material Lover” was featured in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Her debut album, Visitor, reached No. 9 on the Billboard 200. Spiro, 21, won best new artist at the MTV VMAs on Sept. 27. Spiro is vying to become the second English female artist in a row to win in this category, following Olivia Dean. Should Spiro prevail, this would be the first time English artists won back-to-back in this category since Amy Winehouse and Adele won in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
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Malcolm Todd
Todd’s second studio album, Do That Again, reached No. 5 on the Billboard 200 in June. “Earrings,” from his 2024 mixtape, Sweet Boy, has climbed as high as No. 17 on the Hot 100. Todd, 23, comes from a musical family. His sister Audrey Hobert co-wrote Gracie Abrams’ smash “That’s So True” and has also released an album of her own, Who’s the Clown? Hobert is also on this year’s entry list for best new artist, though she may be more of a longshot than her brother. Like Lefty, Todd was born in L.A.
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Don Toliver
Toliver, 32, is vying to become the first male hip-hop artist to be nominated in this category since Tobe Nwigwe three years ago. Only one male solo rapper has ever won in this category: Chance the Rapper 10 years ago. Toliver’s fifth album, Octane, was his first to top the Billboard 200. Houston native Toliver is vying to become the third artist from Texas to win best new artist, following Christopher Cross and Megan Thee Stallion (who were both born in San Antonio – and have little else in common).
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Within Reach
Avery Anna; Bossman Dlow; Ken Carson; Miles Caton; CMAT; Kashus Culpepper; Dexter and the Moonrocks; Carter Faith; Magnus Ferrell; Fcukers; Audrey Hobert; Holly Humberstone; Bella Kay; KWN; The Last Dinner Party; October London; Monaleo; The Red Clay Strays; Slayyyter; Treaty Oak Revival; Suki Waterhouse, Rod Wave; Stephen Wilson Jr.; Yung Miami
