Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 7, Rolling Stone is breaking down 10 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
When it comes to country music, the Grammys tend to skew toward the traditional and musically conservative. Nowhere is this more the case than with Best Country Song, a category where old-school-leaning artists like Brandy Clark and legends like Willie Nelson have had more success garnering nominations in recent years than contemporary hitmakers on country radio.
This year feels a bit more wide-open than most, leaving lots of questions for fans to ponder: Will anything from the less-country album by category heavyweight Maren Morris earn a nomination? Which Chris Stapleton’s one-off single will get recognized? Which newcomer has the best chance? For this category, the key thing to remember, according to former CMT exec and FEMco founder Leslie Fram, is that the “authenticity, rather than chart success, always comes through.”
Best Country Song — Our Predictions
Kelsea Ballerini, “Baggage”
Tyler Childers, “Bitin’ List”
Eric Church, “Hands of Time”
Miranda Lambert, Chris Stapleton, “A Song to Sing”
Dolly Parton, “If You Hadn’t Been There”
Who Will Win?
Miranda Lambert, Chris Stapleton, “A Song to Sing”
It wasn’t featured on a big album, barely cracked country radio, and generally wasn’t a major cultural factor in 2025. But this one-off duet by two of the most respected country songwriters of the past decade has that extra factor to appeal to Grammy voters, according to Ty Bentli, host of The Ty Bentli Show on Apple Music: It’s a song about songwriting. With 49 Grammy nominations between these two artists combined (and three wins in this category alone for Stapleton), the odds seem to land in their favor.
Who Should Win?
Tyler Childers, “Bitin’ List”
It’s a goofy, good-natured song about old-fashioned enemies and rabies written by one of the most exciting young stars in country music, an old-school throwback tune that nevertheless went instantly TikTok viral. That’s the case with a lot of Tyler Childers songs, but he’s done a great job turning this latest one into a real moment for fans. Childers doesn’t get much country airplay but that hasn’t stopped the Grammys from recognizing him in this category. “He wants to be in country,” says Fram, “and he’s been there before.” And as Bentli points out, the fact that Childers himself is the sole writer can’t hurt in a category where artistic credibility is everything.
Forecasting the Field
In a year where discourse about authenticity in art has never been more present, thanks to the increasing influence of AI, expect throwback songs like Church’s “Hands of Time” and Childers’ “Bitin’ List” to pack even more of a punch than usual for Grammy voters. The former, as Bentli puts it, “is one of the songs stating the case for art” in today’s age, a message surely to resonate.
And although the song had little to no commercial or cultural impact in the United States, Dolly Parton’s “If You Hadn’t Been There,” released as a tribute to her late husband, could be a dark horse pick in a category where songwriters like her and Willie Nelson have tended to find success. “I wouldn’t rule out Dolly,” says Fram,” “just as I wouldn’t rule out Willie.” And as Bentli puts it, songs written by just one writer, like Parton’s and Childers’, might stand out even more this year, given the ongoing AI discourse.
Where does that leave several other candidates? Relative newcomers and contemporary stars like Zach Top and Jelly Roll seem poised to break out this year, even if they have zero Grammy wins between them. The only question is whether it’ll be in this category, which can lean even more traditional, or elsewhere. Another question is whether Maren Morris, a Grammy stalwart with five nominations in this category, will be considered after marketing her latest album, Dreamsicle, as a step away from the genre.
