“There were so many incredible records,” J.J. Italiano, Spotify’s head of global music curation and discovery, says of this year’s crop of nominees. That makes predicting the Record of the Year category — which honors a song’s recorded version, and which is given to all of the people involved in its crafting — a wide-open game, and one that close listeners can have a lot of fun prognosticating. Italiano says the split between Song of the Year and Record of the Year remains important to the way pop music is thought about. “It’s really cool that there is a tradition where we think about song structure and we think about recording on an annual basis,” he says. “These days, pop music moves so fast that the little details can get missed.”
The Nominees
Bad Bunny – “Debí Tirar Más Fotos”
Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild”
Doechii – “Anxiety”
Billie Eilish – “Wildflower”
Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”
Kendrick Lamar With SZA – “Luther”
Chappell Roan – “The Subway”
Rosé and Bruno Mars – “APT.”
The Lowdown
Lady Gaga’s return to the dance floor, “Abracadabra,” was a huge streaming smash with a massive name-checking chorus. Italiano says the song, the third single off Mayhem, dropped at exactly the right moment: “It was such a definitive Gaga song at a time when it just felt like the world needed precisely that.”
He also raves about Chappell Roan’s “The Subway,” a track that fans of the pop star were clamoring for ever since she began singing it during her live sets last summer. “It’s an incredible song, and as a recording, extremely strong,” Italiano says.
Sabrina Carpenter’s twang-tinged “Manchild,” meanwhile, commemorated what Italiano calls “year two of Sabrina songs being ubiquitous.” He’s right: The song was all over the radio, playlists, and TikTok.
And there was also no escaping “APT.,” the Rosé and Bruno Mars collaboration that was impossible to forget. Based on a Korean drinking game, in which players stack their hands atop one another, the song was a winner for pop fans and the artists alike. Says Italiano, “I personally feel it’s one of the best-engineered and -arranged records I’ve heard in an extremely long time.”
Doechii’s “Anxiety,” balanced on an extended sample of Gotye’s 2011 cut “Somebody That I Used to Know,” was big on streaming, although its claustrophobic production — by Doechii herself — turned off some listeners.
Finally, Kendrick Lamar’s “Luther” is arguably the standout single of GNX. Ink, one of the song’s co-writers, told Rolling Stone that writing the track with the team was inspiring, and said Lamar was “one of the most genuine creatives I ever had the pleasure of working with.” That combination of goodwill and a good song could make it a winner.
Who Should Win
Kendrick Lamar With SZA – “Luther”
Kendrick Lamar’s “Luther” has a timeless feeling that isn’t just chalked up to the dreamily deployed Luther Vandross sample of its titular soul legend’s 1982 duet with Cheryl Lynn, “If This World Were Mine.” Lamar and SZA’s duet would mean back-to-back wins for the Compton MC, who took home Record of the Year for “Not Like Us” last year. “That was such an important moment,” Italiano says about Lamar’s 2025 Grammy win, and notes that the Mustard-produced banger’s dominance segued almost directly into the ascent of the chilled-out GNX cut. That streak might sway voters toward “Luther,” according to Italiano: “When the moment is undeniable, or when [a song’s success] isn’t necessarily about the writing but about how it becomes this time capsule for the year — those are the records that, more often than not, win in this category.”
Who Will Win
Rosé and Bruno Mars – “APT.”
Rosé and Bruno Mars’ “APT.” isn’t just an infectious culture clash; it’s an expertly crafted cut that fits the spirit of the category very well, says Italiano, who calls the song’s arrangement and the way the pre-chorus was recorded “a masterstroke.” It’s also co-produced and co-written by Mars, a Grammy Awards darling, which should help raise the “APT.” rent among voters. Mars is a collaboration king at the ceremonies, too: Last year, he and Lady Gaga scored a Song of the Year nod for “Die With a Smile,” and won for Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, and his duo with Anderson .Paak, Silk Sonic, swept the Grammys in 2022, including in this category, for “Leave the Door Open.” In other words, prognosticators should bet against Mars at their own peril.
