Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 8, Rolling Stone is breaking down 13 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
This year’s nominations for Best Rap Song will likely celebrate the two most exciting things in all of mainstream rap: women in rap and rap beef. It’s going to be a fun race — even if one powerhouse diss track should win in a landslide.
Best Rap Song — Our Predictions
Future & Metro Boomin with Kendrick Lamar, “Like That”
GloRilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Megan Thee Stallion, “Hiss”
Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign, featuring Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti, “Carnival”
Who Will Win?
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
The numbers alone indicate Kendrick’s “Not Like Us” as a Best Rap Song inevitability. It’s been a multi-week Hot 100 Number One on Billboard and became the fastest song to reach 500 million Spotify streams. Everyone from presidential candidates to sports fans have co-opted the title (despite the song being a pretty vile accusation of pedophilia). “I just don’t see a world where [Kendrick] doesn’t win,” says Carl Chery, Spotify’s Head of Urban Music and Creative Director. “The track record is there. It’s one of the biggest moments of the year. So I think everything is working in his favor right now.” The Grammy committee gets its fair share of criticism for not being on the pulse of hip-hop; this year it’d be pretty much impossible to, in Kendrick’s words, not know “what the culture’s feelin’.”
Who Should Win?
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
If ever there were a no-brainer, this category is it. “Not Like Us” covers all the bases: It’s a scathing diss rife with social commentary and call-and-response moments, all over a fun DJ Mustard beat. From the moment the Compton rapper dropped the track in May, the song’s caught fire not just as an anti-Drake anthem, but a legitimately fun song that makes everyone feel like they’re “us” when they’re reciting it. The song’s second verse brought conversations about Drake’s cultural appreciation to a fever pitch; the impact is undeniable. There have been years where a hit song accrued a lot of numbers but didn’t seem as culturally relevant — this isn’t one of those years.
Forecasting the Field
Spotify’s Chery says this is Kendrick’s category to lose, but ponders which one of his Drake disses will get the nod. “I think it’s going to be a matter of what’s the song,” he says. “I could see Best Rap Song being ‘Not Like Us’ and Best Rap Song Performance being ‘Euphoria.’ I think Performance is a little bit more technical, an appreciation for how [a track] is put together. That’s why I have ‘Euphoria’ there instead of ‘Not Like Us,’ which is more a proper hit.” Elsewhere, Chery thinks the women deserve love in this category due to a predicted lack of nominations in this year’s Best Rap Album race. He particularly lauds GloRilla, who he says has “had a great year” and could even be in the running for Best New Artist.
