Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 8, Rolling Stone is breaking down 13 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
There’s a saying in Nashville — “It all begins with a song” — and this year’s glut of contenders for Best Country Song sure backs that up. Zach Bryan wrote a stunning reflection on grief, Kacey Musgraves ambitiously probed the meaning of life, and Jelly Roll reminded us that we’re all going through something or other. Elsewhere, in Josh Phillips’ “Dirt Cheap,” Cody Johnson made an expert argument that memories can’t be bought, while Chris Stapleton reimagined the love song. And that’s just scratching the surface: Any one of those could potentially be usurped by gems by Lainey Wilson, Sturgill Simpson, Megan Moroney, and Beyoncé. (The latter’s “Texas Hold ‘Em,” we predict, is more likely to land in the Best Country Solo Performance; Beyoncé will also likely score a Best Country Duo/Group Performance for one of the collabs on Cowboy Carter, like the all-star “Blackbiird.”)
“When you talk about Song of the Year, you’re really talking about using a song as a vehicle for emotional expression,” says Rachel Whitney, Head of Editorial, Nashville, Spotify, “and these are the songs that really stand out.”
Country Song of the Year – Our Predictions
Zach Bryan, “Pink Skies”
Jelly Roll, “I Am Not Okay”
Cody Johnson, “Dirt Cheap”
Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
Chris Stapleton, “I Think I’m in Love With You”
Who Will Win?
Zach Bryan, “Pink Skies”
A mix of voter familiarity and songwriting brilliance should combine to make the Oklahoma songwriter this year’s Best Country Song Grammy winner. Bryan’s been on voters’ radars since his first nomination two years ago for “Something in the Orange,” and his win with Kacey Musgraves last year for “I Remember Everything” (Best Country Duo/Group Performance) sky-rocketed his profile. Storme Warren, host of country station the Big 615 on TuneIn and a 41-year veteran of broadcasting, compares him to Bob Dylan. “Nobody’s expressing themselves and sharing stories in a more poetic form,” he says. “His ability to just observe and create, based on what is around him, makes him just one of the best songwriters we’ve ever had. He can turn the most mundane into something so beautiful and cinematic.”
Who Should Win?
Kacey Musgraves, “The Architect”
While Bryan’s “Pink Skies” is the latest masterwork in a catalog full of them, Musgraves took an awfully big swing with “The Architect” and knocked it out of the park. What could have been a twee observation of life’s mysteries — “Even something as small as an apple/it’s simple and somehow complex,” she sings, “Sweet and divine, the perfect design/Can I speak to the architect?” — is instead an elegant, deep thinker. It also reunites her with her “Merry Go ‘Round” collaborators Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne, two Grammy heavyweights with 14 nominations between them. “Kacey is a is such a talented songwriter, and I think she really pulls from a depth of experience, and this song in particular is one that resonates when you’re considering life and all its meanings,” Whitney says. “She just does such an incredible job capturing that.”
Forecasting the Field
“There’s some really great contenders here,” Whitney says. “‘Pink Skies’ is a great expression of grief. Stapleton’s ‘I Think I’m in Love With You’ just makes you want to dance, and Cody Johnson’s ‘Dirt Cheap’ was a massive hit and one that he really drove home. But Beyoncé’s ‘Texas Hold ‘Em’ and Shaboozey’s ‘A Bar Song (Tipsy)’ are songs that also stand up.” Warren, meanwhile, says “4x4xU” is “perfect Lainey Wilson,” and predicts the Louisiana native and past Grammy winner could be the category’s dark horse. “She has a mission statement of ‘If I’m going to write about it, I want to be living it,’ and ‘4x4xU’ is a brilliant message of that,” he says. “To sing about the need for that space and time to get out into the woods and be there with your partner. Maybe the song is manifesting what she wants her life to be: to slow down at some point.”
