Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 7, Rolling Stone is breaking down 10 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
This year’s Album of the Year field isn’t lacking for front-runners: Any one of these eight LPs would be a worthy victor. But Lady Gaga‘s Mayhem is poised to overshadow the rest. The ever-evolving singer, songwriter, and performer has been nominated for the top album prize before but never took home the gold. That could change in February.
Album of the Year – Our Predictions
Kendrick Lamar, GNX
Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Lady Gaga, Mayhem
The Weeknd, Hurry Up Tomorrow
Elton John & Brandi Carlile, Who Believes in Angels?
Lainey Wilson, Whirlwind (Deluxe)
Tyler, The Creator, CHROMAKOPIA
Laufey, A Matter of Time
Who Will Win?
Lady Gaga, Mayhem
Gaga scored three consecutive Album of the Year nominations beginning in 2010 with The Fame, followed up by The Fame Monster the next year, and Born This Way in 2012. But more than a decade later, she has experience on her side now, not to mention a stunner of an LP in Mayhem. “Lady Gaga always feels like a strong contender for this category,” says John Stein, head of North America Editorial at Spotify. “And [her being a] household name helps here.” Mayhem may actually benefit from the competition too, Stein says: “I think it might win based on vote splitting.”
Who Should Win?
Lady Gaga, Mayhem
Gaga leaned hard into her own history on Mayhem, a record many considered a return to her dance-pop roots. She turned her own name into a chorus on “Abracadabra,” got macabre at the club in “Disease,” and brought it all to vivid life with a career-defining Coachella performance earlier this summer. It’s her time.
Forecasting the Field
While Lady Gaga has the mojo, don’t sleep on the Weeknd, another former Super Bowl Halftime Show headliner who, perhaps more importantly, returned to the Grammy fold on this year’s telecast; Hurry Up Tomorrow, is the purported final album that Abel Tesfaye will release under the Weeknd brand, and could get a nod to make up for lost time.
“Bad Bunny’s album is also worth a conversation,” Stein says. “He’s never won outside a Latin category before, and it’s overdue. The Super Bowl Halftime Show announcement helps his case, for sure.”
Elsewhere, Brandi Carlile and Elton John’s Who Believes in Angels? brings together two industry-beloved figures for a rousing album that looks at mortality and celebrates queer pop icons Laura Nyro and Little Richard. Lainey Wilson’s Whirlwind was initially released at the end of the 2025 nomination year, but a nod to its deluxe edition could celebrate her triumph in the country space, as well as what Stein calls her recent rise to “that sweet spot as a cultural figure and a musician.” Both of Tyler, the Creator’s two recent albums are eligible, but Stein sees CHROMAKOPIA getting the nod because of its “very strong message throughout, and the aesthetic tied to it.” And jazz-pop newcomer Laufey has made her mark by blending timeless sounds with Gen Z realities, building a strong audience of fans of her work and admirers of her musical ability.
But the ultimate spoiler may be Kendrick Lamar, Stein says. “Coming off last year and the momentum he had, he released a really strong album that seemed to perform on every level: Culturally, critically, commercially,” he says. “It feels like a good moment for him; it seems like he’s a household name in a way he never was in the past, which feels great for Album of the Year.”
