The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard Hot 100 dated Sept. 14, we look at a race that’s been dominated by one song for about two months now – and what songs, if any, may be closing the gap in the near future.
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Well, he narrowly lost out on Billboard’s official Song of the Summer to Post Malone and Morgan Wallen with “I Had Some Help” — another week or two and that race might’ve gotten really interesting – but Shaboozey can content himself that he’s held on at No. 1 for yet another week on the Hot 100. That’s eight weeks total now for “A Bar Song,” marking the longest run of 2024, and the longest for anyone since (again) Morgan Wallen, whose “Last Night” reigned for twice that long in 2023.
And it doesn’t appear to be fading much yet, either. It remains in the top five on Streaming Songs and atop atop both Digital Song Sales (12 weeks) and Radio Songs (five weeks). Its radio dominance also includes six weeks thus far atop the Country Airplay chart – one week away from passing Carrie Underwood’s “Jesus, Take the Wheel” for the longest-reigning country career-establishing No. 1 (defined as an artist’s first Country Airplay entry as a lead artist, or their initial song promoted to country radio) in the chart’s history. As long as its cross-platform dominance holds strong — it’s also been No. 1 the past two weeks on Adult Pop Airplay – it will remain a contender for the top spot; another artist is gonna have to really rise up to take the crown from it.
Sabrina Carpenter, “Taste,” “Please Please Please” & “Espresso” (Island): Could Sabrina Carpenter be the artist to do that? She certainly has strength in numbers going for her: Carpenter holds the Nos. 2-4 spots on the Hot 100 this week (dated Sept. 7), as her Short n’ Sweet album conquers the Billboard 200 albums chart. Long-running hits “Please Please Please” (No. 1 peak) and “Espresso” (No. 3) shoot back up to Nos. 3 and 4 on the chart, respectively, while just above them, the brand-new “Taste” bows at No. 2, thanks in large part to a spicy new music video with TV and film star Jenna Ortega as its co-lead.
All three should be strong performers for some time. “Taste” remains atop essentially all major streaming charts – including Apple Music’s real-time listing, Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and YouTube’s Trending Music – over a week after its release, while “Please Please Please” climbs to No. 1 on Pop Airplay and “Espresso” holds at No. 3 on the overall Radio Songs chart. The biggest issue with Carpenter claiming the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot soon might be a kind of vote-splitting effect — particularly on the airwaves, where programmers simply have more songs of hers right now than they know what to do with.
“Taste” has momentum on its side, and is already nearing the 50-position Radio Songs listing. If it can pick up enough airplay before its streaming totals really start to drop, it could close the gap with “A Bar Song” before too long. In the meantime, an extra boost from Carpenter would help – like, say, with a memorable performance at the MTV Video Music Awards, where she’s scheduled to perform next Wednesday (Sept. 11).
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Meanwhile, momentum has hardly sagged at all for the new Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars duet – which falls to No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week thanks to the Sabrina surge, but holds in the top three on both Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs, and is already bounding up Radio Songs, jumping 45-36 this week. And despite falling on Streaming Songs post-Short n’ Sweet, it’s actually up in total streams for the week, and even hits No. 1 on both Billboard Global charts.
Will the song be in position to take over the Hot 100’s top spot when the Gaga-starring Joker: Folie a Deux – which “Smile” does not appear to be officially connected to, but which it does have some spiritual kinship with via its title – hits American theaters in October? Will it even have to wait that long?
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG) & Chappell Roan, “Good Luck Babe” (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Both of these now-long-running (if relatively slower-building) hits seem to have fallen behind in the race a bit, as they’ve been passed by the big-debuting “Taste” and “Smile.” But both are still definitely in the mix, with both holding in the top 10 on Streaming Songs, and “Birds” having reached the top 10 on Radio Songs, with “Babe” likely to join it there next week. The VMAs next week may also hold bump potential for both: Eilish is not performing but is a four-time nominee, while Roan is making her debut on the VMAs stage and is also up for four awards.
