Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 16, Rolling Stone is breaking down 11 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
Record of the Year — not to be mistaken for Song of the Year — honors a song’s recorded version, and is given to all the people involved in its music making. This year’s crop will likely see established artists up against relative newcomers across a mix of genres, including Ella Langley, Raye, Noah Kahan, and the protean Rosalía.
“Grammys, there’s the biz of it all,” points out Tony Gervino, editor-in-chief of Tidal. “They are trying to age down and get that younger audience and be relevant in that younger space, coupled with the fact that there are so many younger and fresher artists that are killing it. I see them going a little more in that direction.”
Record of the Year – Our Predictions
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need”
Noah Kahan, “The Great Divide”
Ella Langley, “Choosin’ Texas”
Bruno Mars, “I Just Might”
Raye, “Where Is My Husband!”
Olivia Rodrigo, “The Cure”
Rosalía, feat. Björk and Yves Tumor, “Berghain”
Taylor Swift, “The Fate of Ophelia”
Who Will Win?
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need”
This is a tough one to predict. For starters, it’s a feat just to contend with a song as gargantuan as Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need,” and the record-breaking “Choosin’ Texas” from country star Ella Langley does just that. The upset would mark the first time in more than a decade that the Grammys rewarded a country artist with ROTY (Lady A and “Need You Now” was last in 2011). And Langley’s hit has broken numerous chart records including becoming the longest running Number One song in Billboard Hot 100 history. It arrives at a time when the genre’s sales and streaming numbers are spiking.
Don’t count out Raye, either. “Sometimes the Grammys go with people they know. They’re not familiar with every song so they fall back on people they’re familiar with,” says Gervino. “If I had to guess, I’d say Raye is gonna win Record of the Year.”
All that aside, we see Dean taking home the gold. Her song carries the nostalgia and gorgeous technicalities that the Grammys love to reward — and that’s not a knock on this sumptuous hit. ROTY honors the song’s architects, so expect to see Dean, co-writer Tobias MacDonald Jesso Jr. (who nabbed the inaugural Songwriter of the Year in 2023), and co-writer/producer Zach Nahome all onstage.
Who Should Win?
Rosalía, “Berghain”
The first single off her instant classic, Lux, sees the pop maverick wield her training as a conservatory musician with operatic vocals in German and Spanish, set against the booming London Symphony Orchestra and featuring cameos from Björk and Yves Tumor. There’s nothing else that sounds like it and it’s impossible to stuff into a single genre, which makes it difficult for the Grammys to pin. Noah Goldstein, Sir Dylan, and Jake Miller, who produced the song with Rosalía, were surgical in structuring this masterpiece together, juxtaposing the song’s irreverence with its intense spirituality.
“I would like to see Rosalía win something for that album. There has to be a world where that kind of creativity and genius is rewarded,” says Gervino. “The first time I heard [Lux], it’s like Robert Johnson — all of a sudden it comes out of nowhere and you’re like wait, where did this come from? There’s no precedent for that album. You can’t put her in a box. That’s the challenge with that.”
Forecasting the Field
The Olivias are contending for the top spots this year. And Rodrigo, who has had a monumental year, will likely make the list with “The Cure” — she has a good chance of winning it all too. There’s also the heavyweights to keep in mind: Taylor Swift and Bruno Mars are Grammy darlings and could show up here. Then, there’s Noah Kahan, whose The Great Divide album Gervino calls “pristine,” and says that its titular single is “great thematically” and a song “everyone can identify with.”
