Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 8, Rolling Stone is breaking down 13 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
Best New Artist is part of the Big Four categories, alongside Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year. While they’re all massive achievements, Best New Artist is the ultimate award, signaling a star’s arrival. And our predictions this year suggest it’s going to be one close race.
“It was a really good breakthrough year,” says Alex Tear, SiriusXM’s Vice President of Music Programming. “There’s a really good level of competitive drive, but also, everybody’s treating each other with respect. Many of these artists know each other. There’s conversations, they keep connected, and they’re fans of each other. So it’s going to be an exciting awards show to see what goes down.”
Best New Artist – Our Predictions
Benson Boone
Sabrina Carpenter
The Last Dinner Party
Sexyy Red
Tommy Richman
Chappell Roan
Shaboozey
Teddy Swims
Who Will Win?
Chappell Roan
Roan’s explosive success this year means she’s likely to sweep the major categories. Each of our predictions are worthy of taking home Best New Artist, but Roan is the clear winner of the bunch. “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess really set her up in 2023, and that Chappell buzz was going,” Tear says. “I remember [thinking], ‘Oh my god, she’s going to kill this.’”
Who Should Win?
Chappell Roan
Roan famously described herself as “your favorite artist’s favorite artist,” but that was before she had 5 million followers on Instagram and received an invitation to the White House (spoiler alert: she turned it down). And considering she spent almost a decade trying to make it in the industry, she’s the most worthy of the win. “It’s my dream job,” she told us. “I never know if it’s going to be like this ever again, which is kind of scary.”
Forecasting the Field
With Tyla ineligible to win Best New Artist (“Water” won her a Grammy in the inaugural category Best African Music Performance last year), Sabrina Carpenter might be Chappell Roan’s biggest competition. In fact, choosing between Roan and Carpenter was nearly impossible for Tear. “This was tough for me,” he says. “I’m really torn. I’m like, ‘Man, where’s this going to go?’ It’s refreshing to watch.”
Other contenders include “Beautiful Things” singer Benson Boone (“In the middle of this Brat year, he’s done a masterful job with connecting to the masses,” Tear says) and Shaboozey. “You’re not going to be able to avoid ‘A Bar Song (Tipsy)’ at any wedding for the next 10 years,” Tear jokes. Sexxy Red, Tommy Richman, U.K. indie rockers the Last Dinner Party, and Teddy Swims also may take home the award. “Teddy Swims is my personal favorite,” Tear says. “He’s got an amazing, memorable voice, and he’s got the swag. ‘The Door’ is a song that just won’t stop. It won’t get out of your head — it’s like that casual haunt that comes up behind you and it stays.”
