This nomination year was one of pop’s most lively in recent memory, with newly minted phenomena, breakout hits, and superstar flag-plants jostling for position on playlists and charts. It makes for a fairly wide-open Record of the Year field that could balance starpower with surprises.
Record of the Year – Our Predictions
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things”
Beyoncé & Miley Cyrus, “II Most Wanted”
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
Taylor Swift, “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart”
Zach Bryan, “Pink Skies”
Who Should Win?
Shaboozey
Few songs combine this year’s many pop phenomena — new artists making splashes, cross-genre experimentation, the return of country to the Top 10 — than Shaboozey’s strummy, hooky “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which showcases the Virginia-born singer-rapper’s deep voice on a cut that recalls modern hip-hop and folksy roots-pop. “That song immediately felt like a hit from the moment you heard it,” says Talia Kraines, Senior Editor of Pop at Spotify. “It’s been great to be able to have that song on pop and country lists. And it’s become an all-encompassing party hit for all time — a kind of genre-less song.”
Who Will Win?
Billie Eilish
Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” is a pop gem that showed how the eclectic artist’s vocal interpretations have matured since her late-‘10s breakthrough. Listeners naturally gravitated toward it, too, and it unexpectedly became the hit from Hit Me Hard and Soft this summer. “I love that,” says Kraines. “When a record comes out, there’s a planned [focus] song, but then we begin very quickly seeing on Spotify different songs beginning to trend. We immediately all loved ‘Birds of a Feather’ in editorial, so we were so happy when listeners also loved it.”
Forecasting the Field
Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department have no shortage of potential candidates, starting with their lead singles, the twangy “Texas Hold ‘Em” and the moody, Post Malone-assisted “Fortnight.” But this category might be the place for curveballs: Beyoncé’s “II Most Wanted” is a classic-sounding duet with last year’s Record of the Year winner, Miley Cyrus, while Swift’s “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” is a sparkling Jack Antonoff production that, Kraines notes, “has really connected on this new portion of the Eras Tour.”
Elsewhere, Benson Boone’s storming “Beautiful Things” combines old-school rock fireworks with next-generation stardom. “’Beautiful Things’ came out at the start of [2024], which feels so long ago,” says Kraines, “but it’s still one of the biggest songs of the year.” Zach Bryan’s “Pink Skies” shows off the singer-songwriter’s ability to turn subtle emotional shades into stadium-ready country cuts. “Zach is a great pick and deserves his Grammy moment,” says Kraines. “He originally came out of country and Americana, but he’s transcendent — despite being so rootsy and in one genre on paper, everyone likes listening to him.” Sabrina Carpenter’s smoothly quirky “Espresso” was a smash from the jump, and it made the Disney vet feel like an overnight sensation. “My favorite thing is to tell people that we’re on Sabrina’s sixth studio album,” says Kraines. “She’s been here, and the idiosyncratic lyrics really captured everyone’s heart.”
The question of whether Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” will make it is a chin-scratcher. An undeniable sensation immediately upon its surprise release, the DJ Mustard-produced banger’s popularity has only grown since early May, with marching bands picking up its mantle for this fall’s football season. But will its lyrics, which focus squarely on the perceived wrongdoings of Drake and his entourage, be too much for the nominating committee? Kraines doesn’t think so. “It was so big and such a moment,” she says, “it would be a strange thing to not include.”
More than a few credible contenders could be swapped in for most of these eight spots, too. Chappell Roan’s seething “Good Luck, Babe!” was like gasoline poured on the Missouri-born singer’s career, which had already been smoldering because of her earlier singles and her plum spot on Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts Tour. Post Malone’s Morgan Wallen collab “I Had Some Help” began his turn toward country and became one of this summer’s biggest hits. Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” is another superstar team-up, one that, says Kraines, is “a classic-sounding song that feels like we’ve been listening to it forever with two of everyone’s favorite artists.” Whether those bona fides are enough in a packed Grammy year, though, is up for debate.
