The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 16, we look at Shaboozey’s chances to have just the second single in chart history to spend a 17th week at No. 1.
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): This week, Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” reclaims the Hot 100’s top spot from Morgan Wallen’s “Love Somebody,” fending off a hard-charging “Die With a Smile” by Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga to claim its 16th week atop the chart. That 16th frame at No. 1 is already a record-tying one, matching the longest reign on the chart this decade, a record previously held solely by the aforementioned Wallen with the previous year’s “Last Night.”
Now, “A Bar Song” is going for week 17 – which would move it past “Last Night,” along with fellow 16-week No. 1s “One Sweet Day” (Mariah Carey & Boyz Men, 1995-96) and “Despacito” (Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber, 2017) into sole possession of the runner-up spot for the longest-ruling hit in Hot 100 history. A 17th week at No. 1 would not only set a new mark for this decade, it would be the longest run for a song with only one credited artist. From there, the only song remaining ahead of it in the history books would be “Old Town Road” (Lil Nas X feat. Billy Ray Cyrus), with 19 weeks at No. 1 in 2019.
Will it get there? Well, its numbers continue to slip, but only very slowly, as it seems on pace to score a 15th week atop Radio Songs, and may rebound some on Streaming Songs with Tyler, the Creator’s Chromakopia album (released on a Monday morning, Oct. 28) now in its second(-ish) frame. As has long been the case with “A Bar Song,” the song is a steady performer enough that it is still unlikely to simply cede the throne; another song will likely have to come along and actively seize it from Shaboozey.
Tyler, the Creator feat. GloRilla, Sexyy Red & Lil Wayne, “Sticky” (Columbia): Shocking – the biggest early breakout hit off Tyler, the Creator’s chart-topping (and pace-setting) Chromakopia album seems to be the one with all the rap hitmaker guest stars. “Sticky,” which features not only 2024 sensations GloRilla and Sexyy Red but one of the most successful rappers in Billboard history (and Tyler’s own hero) in the legendary Lil Wayne, has taken over as the album’s top-performing song on Apple Music and iTunes, and has been climbing the daily rankings on Spotify as well, looking to take over from “St. Chroma” (which debuts at No. 7 on this week’s Hot 100 this week) as the set’s best-performing Hot 100 hit.
Does that mean “Sticky” will be in the hunt for the chart’s top spot next frame in its first full week of tracking? Maybe not quite – it’s still got a long way to climb after debuting at No. 14 this week, and radio certainly will be little help, as the song’s mostly beatless first verse makes it a challenging full play on the airwaves (where Tyler has never had much success to begin with). But if it continues to grow at the rate it has been, it could be a major challenger to Shaboozey in the weeks to come – especially if hip-hop radio decides to latch onto the parts of the song with GloRilla and Sexyy Red, two of the year’s most reliable fixtures on the format.
Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” took its shot at No. 1 this past week and fell just short, but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the race now. Even with the song likely to recede in sales and streams a little the week after the duo dropped new live and acoustic versions of it, it continues to grow in radio airplay, as it jumps 11-9 on Radio Songs this week and should remain a riser next week. Could the Grammy nominations, announced this Friday (with “Smile” a strong contender for a nod in multiple categories) be enough to put it over the top the week after next? Bruno and Gaga certainly didn’t get to where they are today by leaving potential No. 1s on the table, so another concerted push before the song’s chart run ends is always a possibility.
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): Speaking of No. 2 hits – another single that “Bar Song” has held to the runner-up spot thusfar is Billie Eilish’s long-running Hit Me Hard and Soft smash, which catapulted to a silver-medal finish the week following the release of its official video, and which holds at No. 3 on the chart behind “Bar Song” and “Smile” this week. There’s nothing much new to talk about the song this week, but it remains a steady performer on both streaming and radio (as it’s led Pop Airplay for seven weeks and Adult Pop Airplay for three weeks) — and also could be a Grammy nominations beneficiary next week, with Billie being one of the most celebrated artists at the awards this decade.
