The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 6, a couple true chart heavyweights duke it out for the top spot.
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Stray Kids, DO IT (JYP/Republic): A new five-track mixtape wouldn’t be a particularly big threat from most artists to take down the record-setting new album by the biggest pop star in the world. But when it comes to the Billboard 200, Stray Kids isn’t most artists. Between albums, EPs and mixtapes, the South Korean pop octet has launched seven sets onto the Billboard 200 since 2022 — and all seven of them have debuted at No. 1. The Kids haven’t missed the top spot yet.
Now, they look to go eight-for-eight with DO IT, the five-track set officially being called the group’s new mixtape, released last Friday (Nov. 21). The release, which offers both a regular version and a “Festival Version” of its title track as its bookending cuts, got off to a strong streaming start, with each of its four new tracks debuting on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. (“Do It” remains on the listing four days later.)
But as is usually the case with Stray Kids, physical sales will likely provide the biggest chunk of the album’s overall first-week consumption. To that end, the group has made DO IT available in a wide array of formats — including seven CD variants, all featuring collectibles (some randomized). There’s also four total webstore-exclusive download versions of the mixtape, each of which adds its own “chat” bonus audio tracks with the bandmembers.
Will it all be enough for the Kids to unseat Republic labelmate Taylor Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl, which has reigned for the first seven weeks of its release? Well, in its seventh and most recent week at No. 1, Showgirl amassed 93,000 total equivalent album units. The group’s last Billboard 200-topper, this September’s full studio album KARMA, bowed with 313,000 units. The shorter DO IT might not post numbers quite so robust, but if it’s anywhere in range of that number — well over triple what Showgirl posted in last week — it’s going to be pretty challenging for Swift to make up the difference.
Wicked Movie Cast, Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good — The Soundtrack (Republic/Verve): Even without a new Stray Kids project, it would still be far from smooth sailing for Swift’s blockbuster on the Billboard 200 this week. Showgirl also has to compete with perhaps the year’s most-anticipated movie soundtrack (and yet another fellow Republic release), with the accompanying OST to blockbuster film musical sequel Wicked: For Good also debuting on Friday — featuring musical contributions from co-stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, as well as cast members Jonathan Bailey, Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum and more.
The set has also gotten off to a solid start on DSPs, with a number of songs debuting on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — most of which have stuck around throughout the week, most notably Erivo and Grande dueting on the “For Good” title track. The album should also sell well to the musical’s (and stars’) many obsessive fans, particularly with seven vinyl and four CD variants available for purchase, one of the latter also coming signed by Erivo and Grande.
Does For Good also have a strong chance at a six-digit debut? If the performance of the original Wicked: The Soundtrack is any indication, then yes: That set bowed with 139,000 units in December 2024, with 85,000 of that number coming in sales. This set may come up a little short of that, with the musical’s first half containing some of its more traditionally beloved songs, like “Defying Gravity” and “Popular.”
But this new set does have the benefit of a pair of new compositions: the Erivo solo “No Place Like Home” and Grande solo “The Girl in the Bubble.” And it also now has a historic box office bow for the movie it accompanies — not to mention Thanksgiving weekend (and Black Friday) coming up — meaning that if it doesn’t get to 100k this week, it very well still might in week two.
