Forecasting the Song of the Year is often a precarious and, some may say, foolhardy task, because if there’s one thing we know about Grammy voters, it’s that they like to keep us on our toes.
The Nominees
Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”
Doechii – “Anxiety”
Rosé and Bruno Mars – “APT.”
Bad Bunny – “DtMF”
Huntr/x – “Golden”
Kendrick Lamar With Sza – “Luther”
Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild”
Billie Eilish – “Wildflower”
The Lowdown
“The talent on display is next-level,” says Alex Tear, SiriusXM’s vice president of music programming, of this year’s Song of the Year contenders. “World-class songwriting, powerful storytelling, and real energy that’s connecting with their respective audiences. They have all put in the grind — and have delivered. Everybody, including myself, can sit on the side and say certain things and judge, but every single artist here has a piece of art that has done well, and they should be super proud.”
Lady Gaga has been nominated in the category four times and has yet to win, so her taking home the gold in this category for the Mayhem highlight “Abracadabra” would be a massive victory for the singer. “I believe her to be a front-runner,” says Tear. “She does great work. She’s been doing it for a long time. She continues to deliver era-defining music. She’s modernized her signature sound, going back to her core feels.”
It’s also important not to overlook massive hits like Huntr/x’s “Golden” (from Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters), which, while attributed to a fictional animated band, is delivered with verve by the real-life singers behind the group: Ejae, Audrey Nuna, and Rei Ami. (Ejae co-wrote the song.)
Then again, we wouldn’t be surprised if Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s acclaimed collab “Luther” took home the award: That song has momentum for days.
But Bad Bunny can also very likely snag this award, for “DtMF.” After all, 2026 is already shaping up to be his year, with a headlining slot at the Super Bowl LX halftime show on Feb. 8 and a world tour in the works. Winning this particular Grammy award — or several, for that matter — would be historic. Benito’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos is a powerhouse, and also a potential spoiler in the hotly contested Album of the Year race.
“I think Bad Bunny is going to be a surprise factor for the Grammys,” says Larry Calderon Jr., the program director for Y100.7 in Miami, a contemporary-hit station. “He has been able to cross over so flawlessly, in a way that no other artist on the Latin side has been able to do. His energy and just his artistry is so great.”
Who Should Win
Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild”
Kicking off the roll-out of Sabrina Carpenter’s Man’s Best Friend, this joyful, biting masterstroke debuted at Number One on the Billboard Hot 100. “It’s easily my favorite song we’ve ever done together,” her producer, Jack Antonoff, told us in her recent Rolling Stone cover story. Carpenter has two Grammy wins under her belt, but not in this category — “Please Please Please” lost to Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” last year. Her finally winning Song of the Year for this disco-rodeo jam seems like a no-brainer. (Or, basically: “Why so sexy if so dumb?”)
“Sabrina has had an incredible year,” says Calderon. “Hitting that Number One hot debut, and Jack Antonoff continuing to produce so many bangers for her. It’s really sharp lyricism that we got there. For me, she’s really one of the front-runners.”
Who Will Win
Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”
It’s so hard to not pick Lady Gaga in nearly any category of this year’s Grammy Awards: She’s coming in red-hot. Mayhem, released last March, is the album her fans were hoping for. It’s a total dance party best summed up in its witchy single “Abracadabra.” To be sure, there’s actual magic in the track, from its self-referential chorus — “morta-ooh-ga-ga!” — to its gothic allusions: There are angels and devils galore on this dance floor. In Rolling Stone’s recent cover story, senior writer Brian Hiatt described the track “as the Gaga-est song ever recorded,” even besting “Bad Romance.” It’s a winner.
