Even though it’s only mid-May, it certainly feels like summer around the Billboard office in midtown Manhattan. And with the official post-Memorial Day debut of this year’s Songs of the Summer chart just weeks away, Billboard‘s staff thought it was time for a check-in on how the race is shaping up so far.
The first name that has to be mentioned in the discussion is undoubtedly Ella Langley, who has the top two songs on the Billboard Hot 100 this week (dated May 23), and a third not much lower. But she’ll be competing with big hits from big names like Olivia Rodrigo and Noah Kahan — as well as from a likely chart onslaught coming from the most prolific artist in Hot 100 history — in addition to some artists who we haven’t even heard from yet this year, but are almost certain to make their presence felt by season’s end.
Should Ella Langley be considered the frontrunner? And which late entrants might be pacing the race before long? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. With three songs around the top 10 and both of the top two, Ella Langley seems the likely frontrunner for Song of the Summer. Do you think she’ll be able to keep her momentum through the summer — and do you see either of her other current hits overtaking “Choosin’ Texas” at any point?
Katie Atkinson: It feels like “Choosin’ Texas” hit No. 1 too early in the year to sustain through the summer, but if we rewind back to 2023 – when Langley’s country compatriot (and duet partner) Morgan Wallen took the Song of the Summer crown with “Last Night” – the One Thing at a Time single first topped the Hot 100 in mid-March. So Langley had a month-plus head start, but that precedent does make it feel at least conceivable. Then there’s “Be Her” — my favorite song on Dandelion, but maybe a little too low-key to climb any higher than No. 2.
The likeliest scenario might be her Wallen duet “I Can’t Love You Anymore,” currently No. 11 on the chart after debuting at No. 7, continuing to gain momentum (after next week’s Drake chart storm subsides, at least), climbing all the way to No. 1 and staying there for a spell. Even if it doesn’t end up unseating “Choosin’ Texas” in longevity, it could have the better pre-summer timing, and the combination of Langley and Wallen feels particularly potent right now.
Kyle Denis: I think the summer is definitely Ella’s to lose. I expect “Choosin’ Texas” to continue sticking around — for comparison, Alex Warren’s “Ordinary,” last year’s No. 1 Song of the Summer, is currently enjoying its 65th week on the Hot 100 at No. 6 (chart dated May 23). I could also see a scenario where “Be Her” eventually takes over before the fall.
Josh Glicksman: I expect summer to be a breeze for Langley. Two of those three hits (“Be Her” and “I Can’t Love You Anymore”) still feel like they have plenty of room to stretch out at country radio, especially as we shift gears into the hotter months of the year. That rings particularly true for the latter, as her collaboration with Morgan Wallen is in just its third week on Country Airplay. I don’t see any of these three hits going anywhere, but I’d put my chips on “I Can’t Love You Anymore” to eventually take the reins — an easily loopable duet between two of the genre’s biggest powerhouses feels too obvious to bet against.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m betting on “Be Her” to knock “Texas” out of its No. 1 spot just in time to become the Song of the Summer frontrunner. As much as I love “Texas,” I think the more upbeat production of “Be Her” is a bit more suitable for the season. Then again, Noah Kahan has us all crying as summer nears… so maybe “Texas” does fit best with a sad summer aesthetic after all.
Andrew Unterberger: I’m betting on “Choosin’ Texas” until I am given convincing reason not to. It’s not just spent 10 weeks at No. 1, it’s spent many of those weeks barely being challenged — and it’s not even done growing yet, rising in both streams and radio last week. Even with a couple of her own songs providing some of the stiffest competition on the charts in recent week, nothing can stop audiences from choosin’ “Choosin’ Texas,” and I don’t see that changing for at least another couple months.
2. Of the other songs currently in or around the top 10, does anything else seem a likely candidate to stay hot (or even heat up further) through the summer?
Katie Atkinson: With its new Spanish-language version, I wouldn’t put it past Bruno Mars’ “Risk It All” to have a summer-fueled surge. He could even juice it with a Latina duet partner (Karol G? Shakira? Rosalía?) and a big live performance on his Romantic World Tour. Otherwise, I don’t think “Drop Dead” is a contender, but we should be on the lookout for the next song from Olivia Rodrigo’s You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love.
Kyle Denis: The Hot 100 top 10 feels a bit stale to me as it stands. “Drop Dead” is fairly new, but I feel like Olivia Rodrigo probably has a more surefire smash on the way. I expect Tame Impala and JENNIE’s “Dracula” remix to continue growing as well. Outside of the top 10, I think Zara Larsson’s “Midnight Sun” will continue to grow, as will Stella Lefty’s “Boston,” Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings,” Sombr’s “Homewrecker” and DaBaby’s “Pop Dat Thang.” I also wouldn’t be surprised if “Billie Jean” sustained its Michael biopic boost throughout the next few months.
Josh Glicksman: To stay hot? I’d consider most of them likely candidates on that front: After all, six of the top 10 songs on this week’s chart have logged at least 30 weeks on the Hot 100. There will be some week-to-week shakeups come the arrival of a few blockbuster albums — Drake’s trio of releases from Friday should kickstart that party — but overall, I think we’ll continue to see plenty of mainstays. That said, nothing else in the top 10 jumps out as an obvious pick to heat up even further.
Lyndsey Havens: Tame Impala’s “Dracula” remix with JENNIE is the most obvious of its top 10 companions, but even “Dracula” is more downtempo and creeping than what typically comes to mind for a summer soundtrack.
Andrew Unterberger: “Dracula” has already had fangs far beyond what I expected in terms of its ability to sink its teeth into the season, so I wouldn’t necessarily bet against its grip continuing through the warmer-weather months, even with questionable calendar-appropriateness. But are any of these folks currently occupying space around Ella Langley on the charts really likely to challenge her for seasonal supremacy? Nah.
3. Are there any songs that aren’t quite in the pre-conversation for Song of the Summer yet — based on how new or how early they still are in their rise — that you expect will be there by the time the race really gets underway in a few weeks?
Katie Atkinson: Someone who’s definitely angling to be in this conversation is just-crowned ACM new male artist of the year Tucker Wetmore, whose current hit “Sunburn” (which makes its Hot 100 debut this week) is begging to be a Song of Summer contender. Sample lyric: “You hit me like a heat wave/ We stayed up all night, all day/ Waves crashin’ outside like thunder/ Your body on mine like a sunburn.” The song even has the perfect easy, breezy summer vibe that will work just as well on the beach as it does at a BBQ. It’s been a minute since we’ve had a Song of Summer that was this explicitly summery, so I’d say we’re due.
Kyle Denis: I’m sure something from one of the Drake albums will rise to the top, and my money’s on “Janice STFU” and “Ran to Atlanta” (both from Iceman), “Slap the City” (from Habibti) or “Hoe Phase” and “Cheetah Print” (both from Maid of Honour).
Trim’s “Coconut Water” has been inescapable on socials lately, and I think this could be the song to get her on the Hot 100 — and potentially dominate the season. I also think it’s already destined to be a Slayyyter summer, so I expect “Crank” to emerge as the main hit from her Wor$t Girl in America album. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see RAYE’s “Click Clack Symphony” and Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter’s “Bring Your Love” continue to percolate, maybe on relatively smaller scales.
I also expect the Dallas/Fort Worth “Bend” to be the summer’s defining dance trend.
Josh Glicksman: It’s hard to argue that it’s flying too far under the radar considering it’s No. 20 on this week’s chart, but Stella Lefty’s “Boston” is heating up at exactly the right time. With a new EP that arrived earlier this month and a summer tour stretching through October, things are looking awfully sunny in the coming months, both for her and the Beantown namesake of a single.
Lyndsey Havens: Even though it’s trending down, I think it would be hilarious and amazing if “Beauty and a Beat” comes back around and climbs up the tally again. I think a somewhat safer bet may be Noah Kahan’s “Doors” (which, despite currently trending down, could see a boost once his tour kicks off, depending how and where it’s used in the show). And for even safer bets I’d pick Malcom Todd’s “Earrings” (despite being released in 2024) or sombr’s “Homewrecker,” both of which are continuing to quietly climb up the Hot 100.
Andrew Unterberger: The Iceman cometh. Drake is almost certainly gonna unseat Langley on next week’s Hot 100, likely with a couple different songs. Whether any of them can endure at that level from there remains to be seen, but there seems to be some degree of real momentum behind “Janice STFU,” “Ran to Atlanta” and “Shabang,” at a minimum. If one of those songs continues to pop, it could end up being a Drake summer — a familiar feeling, historically.
4. Are there any artists who have new material reportedly coming in the weeks or months to come who you think might still heavily impact this race?
Katie Atkinson: Aside from an Olivia Rodrigo sleeper hit potentially on the way, we also have Ariana Grande’s new album Petal coming at the end of July. That album release date is pretty late to affect the SoS race, but if the first taste of the project were to come early (hint-hint, Ari), it could be the perfect timing to dominate the summer.
Kyle Denis: Ariana Grande is top of mind here, and with Petal landing in the middle of summer, I’m sure lead single “Hate That I Made You Love Me” will shake up the race. We’re also getting new projects from Olivia Rodrigo (You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love), Tyla (A*POP), Shaboozey (The Outlaw Cherie Lee & Other Western Tales) and KATSEYE (Wild), so I’d keep an eye on those as well. There’s also a collaboration with Leon Thomas and AZChike on 6LACK’s upcoming album (Love Is the New Gangsta), which should be a nice-sized R&B hit if this world is just. And then, of course, there’s always the lurking question of Beyoncé and the arrival of Act III.
Josh Glicksman: Looking at you, Ariana Grande! Petal, due out July 31, may arrive too late to deliver too many contenders, but I’m keeping a very close eye on lead single “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” which arrives next Friday.
Lyndsey Havens: We have to consider Ariana’s upcoming lead single, “Hate That I Made You Love Me,” which will preview her upcoming album Petal out July 31. Plus, Olivia Rodrigo’s album drops just before summer officially begins, and there could very well be a hit on there that overshadows “Drop Dead.”
Andrew Unterberger: If summer doldrums are the disease, Olivia Rodrigo just might have the… well, y’know.
5. In a perfect summer, what’s a song that might currently be something of a longshot to be a Song of the Summer candidate that you’d love to see get in the mix?
Katie Atkinson: OK, this is the longest longshot, but KROQ here in L.A. has been giving a lot of love to the new Sublime single “Until the Sun Explodes.” It’s the second single from the new lineup of the band fronted by Jakob Nowell, the son of late leader Bradley Nowell, and it invokes so much of the SoCal, reggae-rock sound that made the classic band so popular. Honestly, it just sounds like summer. The sun is right there in the title – what’s more summery than that?
Kyle Denis: This is mostly dependent on who else hops on the riddim, but Di Genius “Hill & Gully” has been dominating the Caribbean recently. As it continues to take off in diasporic cities like New York, Toronto, Miami and London, “Hill & Gully” would be a fun surprise entry in the 2026 song of the summer race. Would also be nice to see something from JADE’s (That’s Showbiz Baby!) and CMAT’s (Euro-Country) 2025 albums finally pop off this summer.
Josh Glicksman: In my perfect summer, this TikTok-led moment that’s happening for Mac Miller’s “Cinderella” — which debuts on the Hot 100 at No. 60 this week — would explode into a longterm chart stay for the late rapper, but I’d consider that to be perhaps even beyond a longshot.
Lyndsey Havens: In my perfect summer, it’s the season of Kahan. I’d be happy with any of The Great Divide tracks being crowned Song of the Summer, but if we’re talking about perfection, then everyone would be listening to “Porch Light” just as much as me.
Andrew Unterberger: As Kacey Musgraves and Miranda Lambert might say, what a–hole doesn’t like “Horses and Divorces”?
